CAD/CHF Approaching Support at 0.9381
Written by Brad Gareiss   
Wednesday, 23 September 2009

Tags: CAD/CHF | Currency Forecast | FX Trading | Technical analysis

The CAD/CHF is forming multiple patterns that may provide strong support in the coming days.  First, there is a bullish butterfly pattern on the 4hr Chart that is our primary pattern.  The pattern is very symmetrical and provides a nice entry.  I like trading butterflies with two 161.8% ratios.  I am not certain, but I think it is because you can tell very quickly if the pattern doesn't work.  There is also a longer term bullish Gartley pattern on the Daily Chart that adds further convergence just below our buy entry at 0.9381.  The BC for this longer term pattern is the XA of the 4hr bullish Gartley.  This setup has above average convergence.

We are looking to buy the CAD/CHF at 0.9381 (Point D).  Point D is located at the convergence of the following points:

  • 161.8% Fibonacci extension of XA on the 4hr Chart.
  • 161.8% Fibonacci extension of BC on the 4hr Chart.
  • AB=CD on the 4hr Chart.
  • 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of XA on the Daily Chart.
  • 161.8% Fibonacci extension of BC on the Daily Chart.
  • AB=CD on the Daily Chart.
  • If RSI falls below 30.
 
We will now go over what to watch for assuming the pair continues falling toward our entry at 0.9381.  If the pair moves down rapidly and has long bars near point D on the 4hr Chart, we will not enter the trade.  Also, if the pair comes within 10 pips of reaching our entry, does not enter, and reaches T1 before entering, the trade is invalid.  The trade is also invalid if the pair rises above 0.9730 before hitting our entry.

To recap, we will look to buy the CAD/CHF at 0.9381 with our stop placed at 0.9304.  Our initial profit targets are 0.9495 (38.2% of CD) and 0.9583 (61.8% of CD).
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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